Murder Rates Continue to Drop Across America
During the pandemic, violent crime rates surged and left concerned citizens and governments alike looking for solutions that would keep their communities safe and reduce crime. The last two years have offered hopeful progress. According to FBI reporting, the murder rate in America declined 11.6% between 2022 and 2023.
There were 2,500 fewer murders last year than the year before. This is the steepest decline on record since 1960 and is part of a larger decrease in violent crime. While three months remain in the year, crime data analyst Jeff Asher suggested that 2024 will bring an even more drastic drop in murders.
He considered the last two years: “the 2023 and 2024 declines in murder are similarly situated. Murder is currently down 17.8 percent in 277 cities with available 2024 data. It’s down 17/7 percent in 171 cities with data available through July 2024. Murder is down 19.9 percent in 90 cities of under 100,000 people. It’s down 17.8 percent in all 10 cities with 1 million+ people.” In short, 2023 is not an outlier, and the positive shifts of the past year are likely to continue.
Major cities, usually hubs of violent crime, are no exception to this trend. A midyear report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association found a drop in violent crime (homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) when comparing 2023 to 2024. Notably, New Orleans murders are down 40.9% from last year. This comes as a welcome change for a city that was declared “the homicide capital of the country” in 2022.
Several factors contribute to the decrease in murder, among them is an embrace of using meaningful data to guide policy decisions and law enforcement strategy. Law enforcement is using technology to gather data that helps them understand which approaches are effective and which areas are in need.
In an interview with NOLA News, Orleans Parish District Attorney Jason Williams described his office’s risk terrain modeling, which does just that. “NOPD officials said data analysis has allowed a shrunken force, with around 900 commissioned officers and 47 recruits as of last month, to better focus on the most vulnerable areas.”
The process of collecting and analyzing crime data is ever evolving and its progress is vital to continuing the positive trends of the last two years. For crime rates and the criminal justice system to improve, stakeholders and communities need access to current and clear data. Asher points to the FBI report as an indication that the process of states sharing data to help each other is improving.
While the murder rate improved, close to 20,000 murders nationally is still too high a number. Lawmakers should continue leveraging available data and evidence to make smart policies that support communities and law enforcement in achieving another record year.
